影响广西沿海的热带气旋分析

Characteristics of the tropical cyclones influencing Guangxi coastal area

应用《台风年鉴》1953—2012年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料,统计分析了影响广西沿海TC和易引发广西沿海显著增水的TC的时空分布特征以及年际变化特征。结果表明:影响广西沿海的TC主要集中于7、8、9三个月份,以南海为主要源地,而引起广西沿海显著增水的TC多源于菲律宾以东大洋洋面。从影响广西沿海的TC在近60年频数和强度变化来看,广西沿海TC最大强度存在下降趋势,但每年的平均强度存在上升趋势。

Based on the CMA best track data from 1953 to 2012,the spatial-temporal distribution and interannual variation of tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing Guangxi coastal area are analyzed.TCs mainly occur in July,August and September from main source in the South China Sea.The storm surge disasters in Guangxi coastal area are mostly caused by TCs swirl up from the east of Philippines.In recent 60 years,the frequency and maximum intensity of the TCs affecting Guangxi coastal area is decreasing,while the average intensity is increasing.