一种统计技术结合动力释用的沿海海雾预报方法

A forecast method of coastal sea fog based on the combination of statistic technique and dynamical interpretation

提出了一种利用历史相似个例查询技术,结合WRF模式输出释用的Gultepe沿海大雾业务预报方法。该方法可以较好的计算近地面大气中的液态水含量(LWC)和云滴粒子数密度(Nd)参数。利用该方法对2011—2013年的3—6月的历史沿海海雾个例进行试报,结果表明,恰当的结合统计方法和动力模式可以一定程度上克服目前数值模式不成熟的缺陷,从而提高WRF模式在大雾业务预报方面的释用水平。

In late spring and early summer,the coastal fog in Zhejiang occurs frequently,which lasts a longer time commonly and causes lower visibility,and brings about harmful effects on the maritime trade transportation.Based on the combination of empirically similar method and WRF dynamic interpretation,the forecast technique of coastal fog using Gultepe method is developed.The technique could get better results of liquid water content and droplet number concentration near sea surface.The historic cases of coastal fog from March to June from 2011 to 2013 are examined and results show that the proper combination of statistic technique and dynamical interpretation could overcome some defects of numerical model and improve WRF interpretation application on fog forecast.