丹东春季回流天气最高气温预报方法研究

Study on Maximum Temperature Forecasting Method for Spring Reflux Weather in Dandong

分析了丹东地区近50年春季（3～6月）最高气温南北偏差5℃以上的回流天气的气候特征,重点分析了2014年春季丹东地区回流天气的特征,根据地面形势将回流天气分成了2种典型类型.中央指导预报产品对丹东地区回流天气预报误差比较大,运用T639数值预报产品对中央指导报进行订正,可以极大地提高预报准确率.

This article analyzes the climate characteristics of reflux weather in Dandong for nearly 50 years in spring （March-June）.The analysis focuses on the spring reflux weather in Dandong in 2014.According to the ground situation the reflux weather can be divided into two typical types.Central guidance forecast products for Dandong reflux weather forecast error is relatively large,using the T639 numerical forecast products to correct the central guidance forecast products,forecsting accuracy rate can be greatly improved.