Lanchester竞争模型及其在公共交通投资中的应用

Applied Research on the Investment Allocation of Public Transit with Lanchester Competition Model

把Lanchester竞争模型引入到公共交通的投资中,定义了投资的效果函数,在动态市场份额及动态市场规模的条件下,讨论了政府对轨道交通与地面公交汽电车的最优投入策略,并得到了最优投入分配比例。上海公共交通十二五规划要求坚持‘公共交通优先’发展战略,但是对公共交通的投入,特别是对轨道交通与地面公交汽电车的投入规模与投入分配缺少明确的方案。通过分析政府对轨道交通与地面公交汽电车两类企业的投入分配方案,以实现公共交通发展的预定目标,同时评估既往资源分配的合理性也将有助于提升未来公共交通投入的绩效。

The Lanchester competition model has been introduced to study public investment in urban mass transit and the effect function of investment has been defined.Under the conditions of dynamic mar-ket share and dynamic market scale,the optimal strategy of public investment between rail-transit and bus transit has been discussed,and thus the optimal allocation proportion of public investment has been derived.Although the preferential development strategy of urban mass transition is the purport of the Twelfth Five-year Plan for public transit in Shanghai,there hasn’t been a concrete scheme of investment in public transportation,particularly with regard to the investment scale and the investment allocation be-tween rail transit and bus transit.Through the analysis of the allocation schemes of investment by the gov-ernment in the rail-transit and bus transit enterprises,the intended target of the development of public transportation is achieved.Meanwhile,the evaluation of the rationality of previous allocation of resources will also help improve the performance of public transport investment in the future.