中国农业生产用能区域差异的时空分析

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Regional Differences of the Agricultural Energy Consumption in China

为了从时空结合角度全面反映中国农业生产用能的空间演化特征及其形成机理,笔者根据各省单位耕地面积农业生产能源消费,利用全局空间自相关指数、局部空间自相关指数,分析了中国农业生产能源消费的空间分布格局,建立了空间回归模型以分析其影响因素。研究结果表明,中国农业生产能源消费水平在不断提高,但省际之间的绝对差异和相对差异在不断扩大;农业生产用能水平存在空间正相关,体现为能源消费高值区集聚和低值区的集聚;冷点区主要集中在中西部的广大地区,热点区主要集中在东南沿海尤其是长三角地区,温点区则集中在东中西的交界地带;农业从业人数、农业机械总动力、农业总产值和农业固定资产投资,是引起农业生产能源消费空间分异的主要原因,但各因素的影响程度不同。此外,空间自相关性也是影响农业生产用能空间分异的重要因子。

In order to comprehensively reflect the characteristics of space evolution and its formation mechanism of agricultural energy consumption in China from the view of temporal and spatial combination, according to agricultural energy consumption per cultivated area in all provinces, using the index of global spatial autocorrelation and the index of local spatial autocorrelation, the study analyzed the spatial distribution increasing, but the inter-provincial absolute and relative difference was expanding; there was positive spatial autocorrelation in agricultural energy consumption which was demonstrated by the agglomeration of high-value and low-value regions. The cold-spots were mainly located in the vast Midwest region and the hot-spots were mainly located in southeast coastal areas, especially in Yangtze River Delta region, while the warm-spots were located in the region that bordering the east, the middle and the west. Agricultural workers, total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural output and agricultural investment in fixed assets were the main causes of spatial differentiation of agricultural energy consumption. But the impact of various factors was different. In addition, the spatial autocorrelation was also an important factor that affected the differentiation of agricultural energy consumption.