气候变化背景下江苏省冬小麦发育期对冬季积温的响应

Response of Winter Wheat Main Growth Stages to Winter Accumulate Temperature Under Climate Warming in Jiangsu Province

利用江苏省35个气象台站1960—2010年的冬季积温资料和9个农业气象观测站的冬小麦主要发育期资料,利用曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)法、线性倾向估计和相关分析等数理统计方法,分析江苏省冬季积温的时空分规律、冬小麦主要发育期的基本特征和变化趋势及冬季积温对冬小麦各主要发育期的影响。结果表明:气候变暖背景下,(1)淮北地区自20世纪90年代初、淮河以南地区自20世纪90年代中期起的冬季积温呈显著增加的趋势;(2)从主要发育期特征来看,淮河以南地区播种—拔节期及以后各发育期长度较淮北地区更短;冬小麦播种—拔节期长度的各地差距最大,播种—孕穗、抽穗、开花、乳熟和成熟期长度的差别逐渐缩小,且淮河以南地区各站点播种—孕穗、抽穗、开花、乳熟和成熟期长度的差距较淮北地区小;(3)从主要发育期长度的年际变化趋势来看,近30年来,播种—拔节期长度明显缩短,拔节—成熟期长度则显著延长,且产量形成的关键期——开花—乳熟期长度随时间也明显延长;(4)随着冬季积温的增加,播种—越冬、拔节—成熟、开花—乳熟期长度显著延长,越冬—拔节、播种—拔节期的长度与冬季积温线性负相关。分析冬季积温对冬小麦各发育期的影响,为进一步掌握其发育期变化的规律提供依据,对更好地指导冬小麦的生产管理具有重要的指导意义。

Using the analytical methods of Mann-Kendall, linear trend evaluation and correlation analysis, the temporal-spatial distribution law of winter accumulate temperature, the fundamental features and changing trend of winter wheat growth stages and the impact of winter accumulate temperature on winter wheat growth stages were identified in this study based on historical data of winter wheat growth stages of 9 agro- meteorological observatories and meteorology data of 35 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2010. Results indicated that： （1） the winter accumulate temperature increased significantly since the early 1990s in north area of Huaihe river and the middle 1990s in south; （2） the growth period lengths （GPL） from sowing to jointing and that after jointing were shorter in south than in north, the regional disparity of the GPL from sowing to jointing was the largest, and the regional disparity of the GPL from sowing decreased gradually, when the regional disparity was smaller in south than in to booting and that after booting north; （3） the GPL from sowing to jointing shortened significantly in the past 30 years, while the GPL from jointing to ripening prolonged significantly, and the GPL from flowering to milk-ripening which was very important to the output was also prolonged obviously; （4） with the winter accumulated temperature increasing, the GPL from sowing to over- wintering, jointing to ripening and flowering to milk-ripening prolonged significantly, while the GPL from over- wintering to jointing, sowing to jointing shortened significantly. Winter wheat is one of the main food crops, analysis of the impact of winter accumulate temperature on its growth stages could supply basis for knowing well the changing rule of each growth stage and provide necessary agricultural guidance.