基于扩展Nerlove模型的中国大豆供给反应弹性研究

Studies for Chinese Soybean Supply Response Elasticity Based on Extended Nerlove Model

根据1983-2011年中国9个大豆主产省份的面板数据,基于预期相对收益,运用扩展的Nerlove供给反应模型对中国大豆的供给反应弹性进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）大豆面积和产量的供给弹性对大豆的相对收益变化的反应程度要强于对绝对收益的反应;（2）大豆的主要替代作物为玉米、水稻和花生,大豆与玉米、水稻和花生的相对收益每降低1%,则下期大豆播种面积分别下降0.123%、0.128%和0.084%,下期大豆产量分别降低0.136%、0.155%和0.167%,长期的大豆播种面积分别减少0.462%、0.389%和0.292%,长期的大豆产量分别降低0.302%、0.366%和0.415%;（3）越是以大豆收入作为主要农业收入来源的地区,对于大豆相对收益的变化反应越敏感,供给反应弹性越大。未来在制定目标价格的过程中,为保障豆农收入和主产区大豆的长期有序生产,不仅要考虑大豆价格的绝对变化,更要兼顾主产区大豆与主要替代作物的相对收益关系。

Based on the panel data in 1983-2011 of nine major soybean producing provinces,Chinese soybean supply response elasticity was estimated using the extended Nerlove supply response model. The result showed that：（1）the supply elasticity of soybean area and output to soybeans relative income was far stronger than that of the absolute return;（2）the main alternative crops to soybean were maize,rice and peanut,and while the relative gains of soybean to maize,rice and peanuts decline 1%,the soybean acreage would fell by 0. 123%,0. 128% and 0. 123% respectively,the soybean yield decreased by 0. 136%,0. 155% and 0. 167%,respectively,soybean planting area would be reduced by 0. 462%,0. 389% and 0. 292% for a long time,respectively,and soybean yield decreased by 0. 302%,0. 366% and 0. 302% respectively;（3） the more important of soybean income as the main source of income,the reaction was more sensitive to the changes of soybeans relative income,and the greater of the supply response elasticity. In order to ensure the orderly soybean production in major soybean producing areas and prevent soybean farmers income gap from be widened,in the process of setting target price in future,it should not only consider the price of the absolute change of soybean,but also the comparison price between soybean and the main alternatives.