区域服务贸易协定、制度因素与服务贸易促进体系研究——基于49国之间双边服务贸易流量面板数据的实证分析

Study on Regional Trade in Service Agreement, Institutional Factors and Promotion System of Service Trade: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Bilateral Service Trade Flow between 49 countries

WTO多哈回合谈判一再停滞,各种双边和区域自由贸易谈判风起云涌,这时大力发展服务贸易、优化服务贸易出口的区位结构、调整与服务贸易相关的制度安排就成为当务之急。本文从制度角度出发,结合区域服务贸易协定的法律视角,以49国之间共1526个经济体对2000-2011年的面板数据为样本,采用豪斯曼-泰勒估计方法对这些国家之间的双边服务贸易流量决定因素进行了实证研究。结果表明:(1)区域服务贸易协定可以直接促进双边服务贸易发展,其提升幅度大致为5.77%-9.77%;(2)进口国的制度质量可以有效促进双边服务贸易的发展,而两国间的制度距离将对双边服务贸易造成阻碍;(3)区域服务贸易协定还具有间接的贸易促进作用,它不仅可以强化制度质量对于双边服务贸易流量的促进作用,还能反向调节制度距离对于双边服务贸易的负面影响程度。

As the WTO Doha Round Negotiation stalled again, almost all the countries are seeking the cooperation of RTAs. It has been top priorities to develop the service trade, optimize the regional structure of service trade export and adjust the institutional arrangements related to service trade. From the institutional point of view and the legal perspective of RTAs of service, this paper conducts an empirical research on the panel data of 1526 pairs of economies among49 countries from 2000-2011 with Hausman-Taylor estimation method. The results show that the RTAs of service can significantly promote the bilateral service trade among the sample countries by about 3.479%-7.659%. Besides, the institutional quality of the import country could effectively promote the bilateral service trade, but the institutional distance could hinder bilateral service trade. Moreover,the RTAs of service also have indirect trade promotion function. They could not only strengthen the positive effect of institutional quality on bilateral service trade, but also reversely regulate the negative effect of institutional distance on bilateral service trade.