四个耦合模式在模拟和预测东亚季风系统方面的对比分析

Comaprison of four coupling models in simulation and forecast analysis of the East Asian monsoon system

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告(AR4)中的海气耦合模式实验,本文研究了温室气体辐射强迫达到4.5 W/m2(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCP4.5)未来情景下东亚地区季风气候变化,对4个海气耦合模式(FGOALS_s2.0(Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model_s2.0)、GFDL_CM3(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model v3)、MPI_ESM_LR(Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model-Low Resolution)和MIROC5(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate v5))的模拟结果进行了对比。结果显示,各模式均能较好地模拟东亚地区的季风气候态特征,例如冬、夏季盛行风向,降水、热通量的季节和海陆分布特点及降水北进南撤特征。然而,各模式的模拟结果之间也存在差异,例如与再分析资料相比,FGOALS_s2.0模拟的风速偏大,GFDL_CM3模拟的降水较低,综合比较得出,GFDL_CM3对东亚地区气候变化的模拟效果最好。对未来气候的预测方面,4个模式给出较为一致的结论:未来100 a东亚季风的总体变化趋势为季风环流夏季风增强,冬季风减弱,夏季风速增加3.7%左右;降水增加,尤以陆地增加明显,东亚地区未来降水全年增加量约为4.62%;大部分地区热通量有增加的趋势,这是温室效应增强的结果。

In this paper, based on the ocean-atmosphere coupling model simulation experiment in the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR4）, the East Asia monsoon climate changes under the RCP4.5 future scenario were analyzed and the simulation results of four ocean-atmosphere coupling model were compared. Comparison results showed that all models can well simulate the East Asia monsoon climate characteristics, such as, the prevailing wind in winter and summer, the characteristics of the sea and land distribution and the season of precipitation and heat flux. However, there were also some differences between simulation results of each model, Compared with the re-analysis data, higher simulated wind speed by FGOALS s2.0, and lower simulated precipitation by GFDL-CM3 were obtained. With comprehensive comparison, GFDL CM3 model was the best model to simulate the climate changes in East Asia. Four models for the forecast of the future climate were relatively consistent： the overall trend of the future of East Asian monsoon is that summer monsoon circulation will enhance, wind in winter will weaken, and summer wind speed will increase about 3.7%. Precipitation will increase, especially on land, The addition of precipitation throughout the year will be about 4.62% in East Asia. In most of the East Asia, the heat flux has a tendency to increase, which is the result of the greenhouse effect enhancement.