基于聚类分析和Cobb-Douglas函数的我国人才经济贡献率测算

The Measurement of Economic Contribution of Talent in China's Mainland Based on Cluster Analysis and Cobb-Douglas Function

建立人才环境综合评价指标体系,对指标体系进行因子分析,根据各个主因子得分,通过聚类将中国(除港澳台以外的)31个省(市、自治区)划分为若干类别;对于每一类别,分别构建物质资本、人才资本、一般人力资本等到经济产出之间的改进柯布道格拉斯生产函数模型,得到不同类别地区人才对经济增长的贡献率,进而计算全国人才对经济增长贡献率的总体水平.研究表明:2001-2010年期间,31个地区按照人才环境可分为3类.第一类地区包括北京、上海、天津,人才环境发展水平最高,人才经济贡献率为27.13%;第二类地区包括广东、浙江等东部沿海6个省份,人才环境发展水平居中,人才经济贡献率为24.91%;第三类地区为其余22各省份,人才环境发展水平偏低,人才经济贡献率为18.78%.全国人才经济贡献率总体水平为22.68%.

An indicator system for comprehensive evaluation on talent environment is constructed, and the indicator system is studied by factor analysis. According to the various main factors, the target system （34 regions in China's Mainland） is classified by cluster analysis. Then, fixed asset, talent capital and general labor capital are used as input variables, and the corresponding gross domestic product （GDP） is used as output variable of the economic system. The mapping between the inputs and output is modeled by improved Cobb-Douglas production function, and the economic contribution rate of talent （ECRT） within each cat- egory as well as the whole target system is also studied. The result indicates that： during the year 2001-2010, China's Mainland （in part 31 provinces） can be classified into three cat- egories according to talent environment： the first category （high level talent environment） consists with 3 provinces, with ECRT of 27.13%; the second category （median level talent environment） consists with 6 provinces, with ECRT of 24.91%; the third category （low level talent environment） consists with 22 regions, with an ECRT of 18.78%. The average ECRT of China's Mainland is 22.68%.