“低电价陷阱”形成机理——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

Price Level,Industrial Structure,and Economic Development——Empirical Study Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

运用2000—2010年的中国省际面板数据,对"低电价陷阱"的形成机理进行了研究。主要工作和结论有:(1)电价水平对产业结构和经济发展的影响存在不完全一致的区域效应。东部和中部地区电价水平的提高可以推动地区的经济发展,西部地区电价水平的提高会阻碍地区的经济发展;东部地区电价水平的提高可以推动地区的产业结构调整,但是中部和西部地区电价水平的提高却不会对地区产业结构的调整产生推动效应。(2)电价水平对单位GDP电耗的影响具有区域效应。东部和中部地区电价水平的提高有利于地区的单位GDP电耗水平降低,但是西部地区电价水平的提高并不会推动地区的单位GDP电耗水平降低。(3)低电价为高耗能企业提供了低廉的能源成本,容易诱导盲目投资和过度发展,造成地区产业结构的畸形化和重型化,在较长时期内阻碍了地区经济发展水平的提高,是"低电价陷阱"形成的深层次原因。(4)基于理论分析与实证研究,建议中国的电价政策应该走出"低电价陷阱",避免人为压低和限制电价水平,让电价反映真实的电力生产成本,充分发挥电价的资源配置职能,推动产业结构的调整和经济增长方式的转型。

The use of 2000--2010 years of Chinese inter-provincial panel data studies ＂low price trap＂ formation mechanism. The main conclusions are ： （ 1 ） The impact of price level of industrial structure and economic development are not fully consistent with regional effect. Improving regional price levels in eastern and central regions can promote regional economic development, improving the price level in the western region will hinder the economic development of the region; Raising the price level of the eastern region can promote regional industrial restructuring, but to improve the regional price level in central and western regions will not produce promoting effect on regional industrial restructuring. （ 2 ） The impact of price level on the level of power consumption per unit of GDP has regional effects. Raising the price level of eastern and central regions is conducive to ruduce per unit of GDP power consumption level, but to improve the regional price leve｜ in western region does not promote regional GDP unit power consumption levels drop. （3）Low price offers low energy cost for high energy consuming industries, which is easy to induce blind investment and over- development and cause abnormal and heavy-duty industrial structure, in the longer term, it hinder the improvement of the level of economic development in the region, which is the deep-seated reason of ＂low price trap＂. （4） based on the theory analysis and empirical research, suggestions Chinese pricing policy should get out of the ＂low price trap＂, to avoid artificially low and limit the price level, make the price of electricity power production costs reflect the true, give full play to the resource allocation function of electricity, promote the industrial structure adjustment and transformation of economic growth mode..