基于Theil指数KAYA分解的中国碳排放差异性分析

Analysis of Inequalities in Regional Carbon Emissions in China Based on Theil Index and KAYA Factors

为了量化2005至2010年中国各省区市之间碳排放差异性及其变化趋势,本文运用Theil指数KAYA分解方法进行研究,结果表明:全国人均碳排放差异逐年减小,能源强度是差异的主要影响因素,人均GDP是人均碳排放差异缩小的主要原因;东中西部和东北地区区域划分方法的组内差异大于组间差异,且中西部地区内部差异是造成全国差异的主要原因;相对"十一五"能源强度目标分解,"十二五"碳强度目标分解已考虑省市区差异,但其基本上根据人均GDP差异进行分组,且很大程度沿用了东中西部和东北地区区域划分。因此,建议在对各省区市分配减排指标时,考虑各地经济发展水平差异的同时兼顾产业结构和资源禀赋。

In this paper, Theil index and KAYA factors are used to quantify the inequality and variation trend of carbon emissions respectively in the provinces, regions and cities in China from 2005 to 2010. The results show that inequality of national carbon emission per capita decreases year by year with energy intensity as the main influencing factor, while per capita GDP is the major cause for the alleviating difference in per capita carbon emission. According to the decomposition of eastern, central, western and northeast regions, the inequalities within the regions are greater than those between the regions. Furthermore, the inequalities within central and western regions are the main cause for the national inequality. In comparison with the assignment of energy intensity target in the ＂Eleventh- Five-Year Work Plan ＂ , the inequalities between the provinces, regions and cities have been taken into consideration for the assignment of carbon intensity target in the ＂Twelfth-Five-Year Work Plan＂. However, grouping is basically performed according to the inequality of per capita GDP, following the regional division of eastern, central, western and northeast regions. Therefore, it is recommended that imbalance of economic development, industrial structure and resource endowment among different provinces, regions and cities should be considered during allocation of emission reduction targets and target decomposition plan should be specified in details according to the inequalities of emission within the central and western regions.