中国奶制品市场形势分析及未来10年展望

China's Dairy Products Market and Its Outlook for the Next Decade

中国是世界第三大奶业生产国和第一大奶制品进口国。近年来,受三聚氰胺等食品安全事件影响,中国奶类产量波动增长,进口大幅度增加。未来10年,中国奶业生产进入关键转型期,规模化程度明显提升,单产水平稳步提升,奶类产量将继续小幅增加,人均消费量较快提升,农村居民增速快于城镇。受资源条件约束,国内奶制品供需缺口将长期存在且呈扩大趋势,进口将进一步较大幅度增加,出口量占奶产量的比重仍较小。

China is the third largest dairy producer and the largest importer of dairy products in the world. In recent years, the output of China＇s dairy has experienced a fluctuant growth with imports increasing greatly, affected by melamine and other food safety events. For the next decade, China＇s dairy production is going to enter a key transition period. Milk production will continue increasing slightly with significantly expanded scale and steadily improved yield, while per capita consumption will be upgraded rapidly and the growth rate of rural residents will grow faster than that of urban residents. Subject to resource constraints, the gap between domestic dairy supply and demand will persist with an expanding trend. The imports will further enhance, and the proportion of exports in milk production will be still small.