基于SWAT模型的洪湖流域供水资源模拟研究

Water resources simulation based on SWAT model in Honghu Lake Basin

利用SWAT分布式水文模型,对洪湖流域1961—2011年供水资源变化情况进行模拟。结果表明:SWAT模型对洪湖流域供水资源模拟适用性良好。近51 a流域年平均地表径流和降水量增加趋势相当,且降水量峰值对应地表径流和地下径流均较高。流域在1960s、1970s相对偏枯,1980s后降水相对丰沛,流域呈现由干转湿的变化。进入21世纪后,流域又趋于偏枯。流域季节降水量、地表径流、地下径流、蒸散发量及土壤含水量变化最大值均出现在夏季,最小值均出现在冬季,但丰、枯年季节分配不同,各要素月季节分布差异较大。洪湖年均入湖水量呈略增加趋势,春、夏季增加趋势较为明显。

Based on the SWAT（ Soil and Water Assessment Tool）model, the variation of water re- sources in Honghu Lake Basin from 1961 to 2011 was simulated. The results indicate that the SWAT mod- el was appropriate to simulate the water resources in Honghu Lake Basin ; the increasing trend of the sur- face runoff for nearly 51 a was nearly the same as that of the precipitation. In addition, the peak of the precipitation was in accordance with the high value of surface and underground runoff. The basin became drier in 1960s and 1970s, but after 1980s, it changed from dry to wet because of the abundant rainfall. Since the 21th century the whole basin tended to be drier again. The maximum changes in the values of the rain, surface runoff, underground runoff, actual evapotranspiration and the soil water all appeared in summer, but all these minimum values appeared in winter. However, water resources difference existed between high and low flow years, and the monthly and seasonal distribution of all elements differed great- ly from each other. Therefore, the yearly water into the Honghu Lake was found to be on the slight rise and that was more obvious in spring and summer.