产业结构调整对城镇劳动就业影响的实证研究:1985-2011——基于山东省的分析

An Empirical Study of Industrial Structure Adjustment Influence on Urban Employment: from 1985 to 2011——An Analysis Based on Shandong Province

选取1985-2011年三次产业产值的比重和城镇劳动就业的相关时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析、VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析和方差分解,探究了产业结构调整对山东省城镇劳动就业的影响。结果发现:三次产业的产值比重分别与城镇劳动就业之间存在着长期均衡关系。长期内,第一产业对城镇劳动就业具有负向作用,第二产业对城镇劳动就业具有推动作用,第三产业对城镇劳动就业具有正向作用;第一、二产业对山东省城镇劳动就业波动的贡献率随时间推移逐渐增大,第三产业对山东省城镇劳动就业波动的贡献率不是很大。

The influence of industrial structure adjustment on Shandong Province urban employment is explored by selecting the time series data about the proportion of the three industrial output values and urban employment from 1985 to 2011 and by adopting unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Grainger causality analysis, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The results show that a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the proportion of the three industrial output values and urban employment ： the first indus- try has a long-term negative effect on urban employment, the second industry has a promoting effect on urban em- ployment, and the third industry has a positive effect on urban employment while the contribution rates of the first and second industries to Shandong Province urban employment fluctuations increase gradually with the third industry contributing little.