乌克兰危机、俄罗斯战略调整与国际格局演变

The Ukraine crisis, Russia's strategic adjustment and international realignment

乌克兰危机是冷战后俄罗斯同西方大国之间性质最为严重的一场地缘战略对抗,不仅多个大国被卷入,而且关系到双方的战略底线及国际关系的基本准则。美国是这场危机的主要推动者,美国不仅意在遏制俄罗斯的崛起,而且意在藉此拉紧大西洋两岸的关系、牵制欧洲大国脱离美国战略轨道。乌克兰危机引起俄罗斯外交战略的重大调整,总的趋势是安全防范进一步面向西方、经济合作进一步面向东方。制裁与反制裁是把双刃剑,结果只能是俄罗斯与欧盟两败俱伤。中国政府在乌克兰危机问题上秉持客观公正的原则立场。乌克兰危机并非典型的能源博弈,但是可能引起全球油气市场格局、生产格局、金融格局的重要调整。

The Ukraine crisis pitting Russia against the Western powers and Japan is the post-Cold War's most serious geostrategic confrontation, involving not only multiple major powers, but also their core interests and the basic norms of international relations. The US is the main driver of the crisis, intending not only to curb Russia's rise, but also to tighten the Atlantic alliance and contain any European powers who are outside the US strategic orbit. The Ukraine crisis has caused major adjustment in Russia's diplomatic strategy of always tending to protect and guard against further Westernization, namely to turn economic cooperation Eastward. Sanctions and countersanctions are a double-edged sword: the result can only be that Russia and the EU will both suffer equally. The Chinese government's stance is to uphold the principles of objectivity and impartiality over the problems underlying the Ukraine crisis. The Ukraine crisis involves an atypical energy game that may cause major adjustment to global oil and gas markets, production, and financial arrangements.