乌克兰危机下的俄欧能源冲突应对及战略调整

Russia-EU energy conflict management and strategic adjustment during the Ukraine crisis

乌克兰危机下,俄欧四大能源矛盾上升,双方通过启动能源危机预警机制、运用相关国际规则等能源冲突应对机制以及能源多元化机制,有效阻止了俄欧能源关系的恶化。但其效用受到国际格局、俄欧关系、乌克兰危机、美国压力、俄欧相互制裁等因素的制约。俄欧应从以下方面完善冲突应对:增强互信、丰富危机预警水平、增强危机应对能力、提高应对措施执行力、管理第三方因素、协调俄乌欧与俄美欧三边关系等,并适时调整能源战略。

The Ukraine crisis is damaging Russia-EU energy relations; so, both sides should use early warning mechanisms, dispute settlement mechanisms according to international rules, and energy diversification strategy to prevent further deterioration in the energy relationship. But their effectiveness is constrained by such factors as theprevailing international climate, Russia-EU relations, the Ukraine crisis, pressure from the US, and mutual RussiaEU sanctions. Russia and the EU can improve conflict management by doing the following: enhancing mutual strategic trust, raising the crisis warning level, improving crisis response capabilities and execution, managing appropriately third-party factors, effectively coordinating Russia-Ukraine-EU and Russia-US-EU trilateral relations, and timely adjusting energy strategy.