摘要
页岩油在北美地区发展迅速,其产量的快速提升和中东地区持续动荡的地缘政治风险分别在资本市场上通过本区域的基准原油价格得以反映,促使北美WTI和欧洲Brent两种基准原油价格呈现差异化的波动走势。研究认为,短期内,北美地区页岩油产量的不断增长和技术进步导致页岩油单桶成本持续下跌,使WTI对Brent基准原油价格的价差呈扩大趋势;中长期,页岩油资源将从供给增长和价格传递两个层面降低国际原油价格的整体水平,而且全球原油供给来源多元化有利于减少国际油价波动,增强原油市场的稳定性。
Shale oil has been developing rapidly in North America. The rapid increase in its production and the geopolitical risk of continued turmoil in the Middle East have had their effect on the capital market through being reflected differently in regional benchmark crude oil prices, prompting North American West Texas Intermediate and European Brent, two kinds of benchmark crude oil prices, to divergently fluctuate and trend. Studies suggest that, within the short term, relentless growth in North America's shale oil production, and the technological-progress driven decline in the cost to produce a barrel of shale oil, will continue and widen the spread between the WTI and Brent crude oil prices. In the long run, shale oil resources will continue to provide for increased supply, while price transmits downward pressure at both international oil price points, and not only does the world's crude oil supply gain supply diversity propitious for reducing international oil price volatility, but also the crude oil market becomes more stable.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2014年第10期84-89,112,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
基金
国家能源局委托课题<中国页岩气开发研究及发展前景展望>阶段性研究成果
