河南省农用地集约利用驱动因素协整分析

Co-integration analysis on driving factors of agricultural land intensive utilization in Henan province

利用河南省1978—2012年的相关数据,建立适用于河南省的农用地集约利用评价体系,用BP神经网络对农用地集约利用水平进行测算,借助协整分析考察了农用地利用集约度与其驱动因素的长期均衡关系和短期波动效应.结果表明,长期内,农用地利用集约度与农民人均收入、农业总产值、政策法规存在正向影响,3者每增加1%,分别会引起农用地利用集约度提高0.241%,0.230%,0.176%;人均耕地对农用地利用集约度存在负向影响,其每减少1%,会引起农用地利用集约度提高0.157%.而在短期内,农民人均收入、农业总产值和人均耕地对农用地利用集约度的作用方向相同而作用力大小不同,政策法规对农用地集约利用的影响更多地体现在长期.

This paper based on time-series data from1978 to 2012 of I-Ienan Province, constructs the index system of agricultural land use intensity, calculates the levels of agricultural land intensive utili- zation by using BP ANN. On this basis, using co-integration theory, this paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium and the short-term fluctuation relationships between agricultural land intensive utilization and its driving factors. The research shows that, in the long term, per-capita net income of farmers, total value of farm output, policy-regulations have positive influences on agricultural land intensive uti- lization. When each of these driving factors increases by 1% , the agricultural land intensive utilization will respectively increase by 0. 241% , 0. 230% , and 0. 176%. Moreover, the per-capita area has negative impacts on agricultural land intensive utilization, when the per-capita area increases by 1%, the agricultural land intensive utilization will respectively decrease by 0. 157%. In the short term, per- capita net income of farmers, total value of farm output, per-capita area have the same influence direc- tion but different influence sizes on agricultural land intensive utilization, however, the long-term effects of policy-regulations on agricultural land intensive utilization is more evident.