“三期”叠加背景下区域发展对科技创新效能响应的SD情景仿真——以陕西省为例

SD Scenario Simulation of Regional Development in Response to Efficiency of Science and Technology Innovation Based on the “Three Periods Superposition”——The Case of Shaanxi Province

对2011年全国科技创新效能进行评估,认为陕西省的科技资源投入相比不小,但其科技创新效能相比全国其他省区并没有太大优势,认为其原因在于科技成果转化率不高;通过系统动力学建模原理,构建陕西经济发展的SD模型,并设定三种不同的科技成果转化率情景方案,并对选取的观测变量进行仿真,认为未来陕西省科技成果转化率需要至少提升至25%以上方能实现陕西"十二五"规划中部分约束性目标;并就如何提升陕西科技成果转化效率提出对策建议。

The Chinese science and technology innovation efficiency in 2011 was evaluated firstly,and then it was consid-ered that the input of science and technology resources of Shaanxi,although as one of the large province of science and technology of China,was not smaller,but its technology innovation efficiency was not much advantageous in our country due to the low rate of the scientific and technological achievements transformation.Based on the system dynamics theory, the paper built the SD model of economic development of Shaanxi to simulate the major variables at three different rates of scientific and technological achievements transformation.It was concluded that the science and technology achievements transformation rate of Shaanxi would require at least 25% to achieve the obligatory aims of the“Twelfth Five Year Plan”of Shaanxi in future.Suggestions are given as follows：that building R＆D mode combined with the government ＆market de-mand,constructing the innovation platform of “industry -university -research -user”cooperation,building the system of diversified property right of technology -based innovative enterprise,and improving the fair market competitive environ-ment.