历史极端寒冬事件研究——1892/93年中国的寒冬

A STUDY OF THE SEVEREST WINTER OF 1892/1893 OVER CHINA AS AN EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT IN HISTORY

1892/93年冬季中国东部地区严寒。本文依据历史文献记载复原了该寒冬实况,推演主要的两次强寒潮天气过程,绘制了雪、冰、冻雨和动植物冻害的地域分布图;定量推断各地最低温度值,并与早期器测温度记录相印证,绘制最低温度等值线图。指出1893年1月苏州、温州的推断最低气温分别为-15℃和-13℃,上海、汕头和香港的早期器测记录的最低气温分别为-12.1℃,-0.6℃和0℃,均低于20世纪以来的极端低温记录;河流封冻南界达28°N,北回归线以南地方多次出现严重冻雨,冻雨南界达21°29′N。由此认为1892/93年冬季是中国最近百余年的首位寒冬——这是在北半球许多地区的小冰期寒冷气候已结束、开始转暖,而中国仍然寒冷时的极端寒冷事例。此寒冬前后的气候特点是:1892年秋季冷空气活动频繁、初雪日期提前,1893年中国东部多雨、台风活动较频繁。该寒冬的背景是:位于第13太阳活动周的上升段;发生于极强的厄尔尼诺事件结束2年后的非厄尔尼诺年,对应于赤道中东太平洋海温变冷时段;寒冬之前全球火山活动较频繁,有重大火山喷发。

The winter of 1892/93 was abnormal severe cold over Eastern China.In this paper the coldness situation of the winter is reproduced by means of historical literature records using our historical climate data system.The synoptic process of two major cold waves were inferred,and a map of coldness records distribution likes heavy snow,frost,and crop freeze injuries were plotted.It is shown that the south boundary of river freeze-up reached south to 28°N,and freezing rain occurred time and again in regions to the south of the tropic of Cancer,the most south location of freezing rain took place in 21°29′N,as well as the depth of snow cover and days with snow lying in South China were never seen in the modern.Based upon the coldness records of places and the critical temperatures necessary for river freeze-up and tree winterkill,the extreme minimum temperatures were deduced quantitatively,and thus,a map of extreme minimum temperature of January 1893 was plotted.It is indicate that the deduced minimum temperatures in Suzhou,Wenzhou and Taishan in January 1893 were-15℃,-13℃ and 0℃,respectively,and the instrumental monthly extreme minimum temperatures in Shanghai,Zhenjiang,Hong Kong,Shantou and Baihai were-12.1℃,-12.8℃,0℃,-0.6℃ and 0℃,respectively,all of the values are below the absolute minimum temperature recorded since the 20th century,such as 1955A.D.and 2008A.D.Therefore,the winter of 1892/93 is considered as the coldest winter for recent more than 100 years.The extreme cold event occurred when China was still experiencing a cold climate despite the end of the Little Ice Age in the majority of the Northern Hemisphere.Prior to this winter over China,the autumn of 1892 underwent frequent cold air activities,and many places suffered from low temperature damage,and the first snow was much earlier compared to modern.In 1893,it was more rainy in most part of China,and the typhoon activity was more frequent.1892～1893 was in the ascending phase of the 13th sunspot activity period,1893 was the year of maximum sunspot number in the period.The volcano activity was more active in the world ahead of the severe winter,there were 3 moderate-large volcanic eruptions and 24 moderate eruptions took place in 1892,in some case,their tephra volume was huge even reached 108m3.As for the sea temperature,there was very strong El Ni（n）o events in 1891,and 1893 was the 2nd non-El Ni（n）o year after ending the El Ni（n）o events,this severe winter corresponding to a cooling phase of sea temperature in equatorial east Pacific ocean