历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法

PALEOCLIMATOLOGY PROXY RECORDED IN HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS AND METHOD FOR RECONSTRUCTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

历史文献记载是研究古气候变化的主要代用证据之一,对于定量重建过去数千年的气候变化序列具有独特价值。本文分析了中国历史文献中气象记录的特点及主要内容,重点梳理了利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的基本方法,并列举了通过多源记载集成、多时段记录衔接重建过去2000年中国东中部地区温度与干湿变化序列的校准案例;旨在为客观提取气候变化信息、获取高信度的气候变化数据和进一步发展利用文献记载定量重建气候变化序列的方法提供参考依据。主要认识是:1)历史文献中的气象记录主要有4类:天气、气象灾害、物候与区域气候特征及其影响记载;定量重建气候序列的基本方法有:回归分析、物理模型、分等定级、频次统计、类比分析等,但各类记录的来源、格式、连续性、详略与定量化程度不一,导致利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的方法也各不相同。2)对根据多源记载或不同方法反演的代用记录进行集成,利用回归分析、方差匹配、记录影响趋势剔除等校准技术,加强多源数据的相互插补方法研究,可解决古代气象记录的漏、缺记问题,是重建连续气候变化序列的主要途径。

As one of principal paleoclimatology proxy,documentary data have been proved to be of unique importance for reconstructions of climate change in quantitative for past thousands of years.This paper provides an overview of the information of meteorological records derived from Chinese historical documents and the advantages and drawbacks of historical records used as data sources on paleoclimatology reconstruction.Special attention is given to the summary on principal approaches for the reconstruction of climate change in quantitative based on various information recorded in different documentary sources.Furthermore,the reconstructions of temperature and wet/dry changes in central eastern China for the past 2000 years are presented,which were reconstructed by calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively.It aims to provide the methodology for the derivation of proxy data from historical documents in objective and the reconstruction of climate change in high quality.As well as,it will help to improve the approaches for future study on reconstruction of climate parameters and climate changes in higher confident level by using documentary evidences.In brief,there are 4 kinds of meteorological records from historical documents：weather observations,climate extreme and disasters,plant phenology and weather-dependent natural phenomena,descriptions and impacts of local or regional climate.They were recorded in different documents with different format,continuity,as well as the level of details and degree of quantitative descriptions.The approaches of regression analysis,physical model,grade assessment （by an ideal frequency criteria usually） with indices on an ordinal scale,counting （especially for frequency of climate event or disasters）,analogy analysis are usually used for derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters to reconstruct time series.However,the approaches for the derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters in quantitative reconstruction of time series vary with the types of records.For example,the drought/flood grade was usually assessed by an ideal frequency criteria with 10％ for severe drought in grade 1,20％ for drought in grade 2,40％ for normal in grade 3,20％ for flood in grade 4,and 10％ for heavy flood in grade 5,based on the description of intensity,duration and area of the disaster,as well as its impact respectively.To deal with the discontinuities in original data for reconstructing a time series in consistency,the approaches of regression analysis,variance match,de-trending of the available records are always adopted for calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively.Moreover,it＇s necessary to formulate more approaches,especially for data interpolation,in future study.