摘要
针对沈阳市人口老龄化的最新数据,运用Logistic curve方法对沈阳市未来20年的老年人口作出了预测;采用ADF平稳性检验方法研究了老龄人口与消费之间的协整关系;通过脉冲响应函数(IRF)分析了老龄人口对消费响应的敏感程度。结果表明:沈阳市老龄人口无论长期还是短期,对于消费都有显著的正向影响,并且短期内的冲击十分敏感。提出了沈阳市培育人口老龄化新兴消费增长点的对策建议。
Logistic curve method was adopted to make a prediction of Shenyang aged population for the coming 20 years based on new data of aged population. ADF stationary test was conducted to analyze the cointegration relationship between the aging population and consumption. Moreover, the impulse response function was applied to analyze the response sensitivity of aging population to consumption. The results show that the aging population in Shenyang has a significant positive impact on both long term and short term consumption, with short term impact very sensitive. Measures and suggestions are put forward for the cultivation of new consumption growth points among aging population in Shenyang.
出处
《辽宁工程技术大学学报（社会科学版）》
2014年第5期472-475,共4页
Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Social Science Edition)
基金
辽宁大学青年基金资助项目(2012LDQN20)
辽宁省社科联辽宁经济社会发展立项课题资助项目(2013lslktzijjx-27
2014lslktziyyjj-25)
关键词
沈阳市
人口老龄化
协整
脉冲响应函数
消费增长点
Shenyang
aged tendency of population
cointegration
impulse-response function
consumption growth points
