一类区间灰数预测模型直接建模法

Method of a direct model based on interval grey numbers

为利用直接建模思想,推导得出了一类新信息GM(1,1)直接模型形式.传统模型只能针对实数序列进行建立模型.以区间灰数的"核序列"为基础,并结合"信息域不减"原则,构建相应的GM(1,1)区间灰数预测模型;通过以"核序列"为中心,推导出所建模型区间灰数上下界的时间响应式.实例结果表明:该改进模型可以有效提高预测精度.

By using the method of the direct modeling, a new information GM（1,1） direct model is proposed. The tradition model of grey systems is based on the real numbers in the prediction. By using the concept of kernel and combining the principle of information field not-reducing, and then the GM（1,1） model of interval grey numbers is deduced; the time response formulas of lower limit point and upper limit point of interval grey numbers is obtained. The application example shows that the improved model has higher accuracy.