中国资源型产业及制造业碳排放与工业经济发展的关系

Research on the Relationship Between Carbon Emission of Chinese Resource-based Industry & Manufacturing Industry and Development of Chinese Industrial Economy

工业在国民经济发展中占据主导地位,决定着国民经济现代化的速度、规模和水平,中国工业生产以消耗化石能源为主,从而产生大量的CO2,因此,如何平衡工业经济发展与碳排放的关系,力求在发展经济的同时减缓碳排放,以实现工业低碳化发展的目标成为本研究的重点。本文将工业进一步划分为资源型产业与制造业,采用1994-2011年的能源消费数据计算得出资源型产业与制造业碳排放量,运用计量经济方法,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、广义脉冲响应函数分析及方差分解,分析了资源型产业及制造业碳排放量与工业经济发展的影响关系及程度。研究结果表明:1长期各变量间存在均衡负相关关系,资源型产业及制造业碳排放的增加阻碍了工业经济发展,且资源型产业碳排放对工业经济增长的阻碍作用大于制造业碳排放;2资源型产业碳排放量与工业经济发展互为格兰杰原因,资源型产业碳排放量的变化可引起工业经济发展的格兰杰变化,而工业经济发展也会对资源型产业碳排放量的变化产生影响;3资源型产业碳排放对工业经济增长的正向冲击呈先升后降趋势;制造业碳排放对工业经济增长的正向冲击短期内呈下降趋势,长期经小幅波动后趋于稳定;4资源型产业碳排放对工业经济增长的方差贡献度较大,呈先增后减趋势。表明短期内工业经济增长方式仍为粗放型,工业经济发展对资源型产业碳排放的依赖程度仍较大,长期对资源型产业碳排放的依赖程度逐渐减弱。提出走"资源型产业转型升级—制造业产业能源结构调整优化—低能耗低污染高效率的高端制造业"的产业发展路径及"改造提升资源型产业—促进工业经济增长—反哺制造业发展"的工业发展模式。

Industry takes the dominant position in the development of national economy and determines the speed,the scale and the level of the national economy modernization.Chinese industrial production is given priority to with consuming fossil energy,thereby it produces a large amount of CO2.Therefore,the research is focused on how to balance the relationship between the development of Chinese industrial economic and the carbon emission,striving to develop economy and reduce carbon emission at the same time in order to achieve the goal of low carbon development.In this paper,industry will be further divided into resource-based industry and manufacturing industry.The data of energy consumption of year 1994 to 2011 was used to calculate the amount of carbon emission of resource-based industry and manufacturing industry,with following the econometric methods,cointegration test,Granger test of causality,function analysis of generalized impulse and variance decomposition were used to analyze the relationship and degree of influence between the carbon emission of resource-based industry ＆ manufacturing industry and the development of industrial economy.The research result shows that：①there is a long-term balanced negative correlation between all the variables,the increasing of carbon emission of resource-based industry and manufacturing industry hinders the development of industrial economic,and the inhibition of carbon emission of resource-based industry is greater than carbon emission of manufacturing industry;②the mutual relationship between the carbon emission of resource-based industry and the development of industrial economy is Granger causality,the change of carbon emission of resource-based industry can cause the Granger change of the development of industrial economic and the development of industrial economic will also affect the change of carbon emission of resource-based industry;③the carbon emission of resource-based industry has a positive impact to the development of industrial economy,this impact shows a trend which rises at first and then falls,and the carbon emission of manufacturing industry also has a positive impact to the development of industrial economy; this impact trends to fall in short-term,and trends to be stable after slight fluctuation in long-term; ④the carbon emission of resource-based industry shows a great variance contribution to the development of industrial economy,and trends to increase at first and then decrease.This indicates that the economic growth will still remain to be extensive in short-term,and the development of industrial economy still has a great dependence on the carbon emission of resource-based industry,but this dependence will be waning gradually in long-term.This thesis recommends a path for the industrial development,which is transforming and upgrading the resource-based industry adjusting and optimizing the energy structure of manufacturing industry-developing high-end manufacturing industry which is low energy consumption,low pollution and high efficiency,and also recommends a pattern for the industrial development,which includes reforming and upgrading resource-based industry-promoting the growth of industrial economy-nurturing the development of manufacturing industry.