兵团农牧工消费结构与收入的关联分析及预测

Correlation Analysis and Prediction Between Consumption Structure and Income of Farm Workers and Herdsman in XPCC

居民消费结构是反映居民消费偏好、生活水平及经济发展水平的重要内容。而收入是决定居民消费水平的关键性因素。该文选取2003—2012年兵团的面板数据,运用灰色关联度模型对农牧工消费结构与人均纯收入进行分析,结果显示:在八大类生活消费支出中,食品支出、衣着支出受纯收入的影响最大。同时,利用灰色预测模型预测了2013—2016年农牧工各项消费支出及收入的变动趋势,结果表明:居住支出在总消费支出的比重超过食品支出,交通通讯支出、医疗保健支出、文教娱乐用品及设备支出受纯收入的影响较大,将成为兵团农牧工消费新热点。

Residents＇ consumption structure is an important content of the reflection of consumer preferences, living standards and level of economic development. Income is the key factor of determining the level of residents＇ consumption. The author selects the panel data from 2003 to 2012 of XPCC and uses the gray correlation degree model to make an empirical analysis between the consumption structure and per capita net income of farm workers and herdsman. The result shows that food expenditure and clothing expenditure in the eight categories of consumption expenditure are the two largest items influenced by net income. Meanwhile, the forecasting analysis on grey correlation degree model is applied to predict the trends from 2013 to 2016 about the level of consumption and income of farm workers and herdsman. The result shows that the living expenditure in the proportion of total consumption expenditure is more than food expenditure. Traffic and communication expenditure, cultural and educational entertainment products and equipment expenditure and health care expenditure are strongly influenced by net income, and they will become new consumption hotspots of farm workers and herdsman in XPCC.