经济周期波动视阈下现金持有的动态调整——基于面板VAR的实证研究

The Dynamic Adjustment of Cash Holdings from the Perspective of Economic Cycle Fluctuations——Based on Empirical Recearch on Panel VAR

基于现金持有的预防性动机与调整成本分析发现,企业的现金持有具有逆周期特征。基于面板VAR的实证研究验证了该假设,并进一步发现,企业现金持有调整具有时滞性与持续性的特征。因此,基于经济周期波动对我国企业流动性管理影响的复杂性,一方面,企业必须提高流动性管理能力应对宏观经济冲击;另一方面,政府部门必须实施有效的救助政策,帮助面临融资约束的企业顺利度过经济衰退。

Based on the analysis of precautionary motivation and adjustment cost, the behavior of corporate cash holdings is counter -cyclical. This hypothesis is verified by the empirical analysis based on panel VAR. Furthermore, the adjustment of cash holdings is time- delayed and persistent. Therefore, one hand, the liquidity management ability should be improved to pass over the macroeconomic impulse by the corporation; on the other hand, effective measures should be taken to help the corporation to copy with recession by the government.