媒体报道、通胀预期与新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线

Media Report, Consumers' Expectations,and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for China

本文研究媒体报道对通胀预期的影响以及预期对现实通货膨胀的驱动效应。文章根据发行量排名、影响力和覆盖范围选取媒体库并计算相关媒体报道的量化指标．通过调查数据获得现实中公众对未来的通胀预期，进而检验媒体报道是否对公众预期通胀率具有显著影响。文章还进一步构建了基于微观基础的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型．用以考察通胀预期对现实通胀率的驱动效应。研究结果表明，中国的媒体舆论显著驱动公众预期，媒体舆论对公众预期变化的解释程度接近30％；单份报刊每增加1篇关于物价上涨的相关报道，公众预期通胀率会上升0．1％～0.2％；同时，公众预期又对现实通胀率具有显著驱动效应．公众预期通胀率每上升l％，现实通胀率上升0.3％～0．7％。因此，我国存在着从媒体报道到公众预期再到现实通货膨胀的传导机制。

This paper investigates the relationship among media coverage, consumers ' expectations and inflation in China. We count the volumes of relevant reports in the leading media database which provide an extensive media coverage in China. In addition, we obtain survey data for inflation expectations in China. The media coverage data and inflation expectations series are then used to examine whether media coverage significantly drives consumers ' expectations. The paper also investigates the relationship between consumers ' expectations and actual inflation in China by developing and estimating an extended New Keynesian Phillips curve model with micro-foundations. Empirical results show that media coverage significantly drives consumers' inflation expectations, and consumers' expectations exert significant pressure on actual inflation in China. Our findings provide important implications for policy-makers in China.