中国经济新常态与宏观调控政策取向

The“New Normal”of China's Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Orientation

从后发国家追赶进程的长周期视角看,我国经济增长进入"新常态"实质是追赶进程进入新阶段。客观、准确地认识"新常态",需把握好增量和总量变化的关系、潜在增速和实际增速的关系、历史规律和现实创新的关系。现阶段,我国经济增速已落入中高速的范围,结构也正发生积极变化,但经济运行仍处于向新阶段转换的时期。确保向"新常态"顺利过渡是现阶段宏观调控的重点任务。"新常态"下我国经济发展面临多重风险和挑战,也面临着新的机遇。在此情境下,宏观调控的整体思路需要根据情况的变化作出调整:增长目标从速度型向质量型转变;通过改革激发市场活力,培育增长动力;切实完善社会保障制度,为可持续增长创造条件。

If one looks at the latecomer countries＇ catch-up process from a long-term perspective, one can find that the observation that China＇s economic growth has entered into a new normality actually reflects the reality that China＇s catching up process has entered a new phase. An objective and accurate understanding of this new normality requires a good grasp of the relations between incremental and total changes, potential and actual growth rates, laws of historical development and innovation at the current times. In the current phase, China＇s growth rate is now within a medium-high range, the economic structure is experiencing positive changes, but the economy itself is still in transition toward a new era. Assuring a smooth transition to the new normality is now a key task of macro- economic regulation. Under this new normality, China＇s economic development is facing multiple challenges but also new opportunities. In this context, the main scheme of macro-economic regulation needs to make adjustments according to these situational changes： transform the growth targets from speed-driven to quality-driven; inspire vitality of the market and foster momentum of growth through reforms; and effectively improve the social security system to create conditions for sustainable growth.