我国石油供给扩张的成本-收益分析——基于降低石油进口依赖效应视角

The Cost-profit Analysis of Increasing Domestic Oil Supply——Based on Reducing Oil Import Dependent Effect

石油进口依赖给我国经济带来了巨大成本支出和经济风险,提高我国国内石油供给量是降低石油进口依赖路径之一。基于降低石油进口依赖效应,从我国国内石油供给的财富转移收益、潜在GDP收益和宏观经济调整收益三个角度以及从直接生产成本、环境成本和使用者成本三项成本来对提高我国国内石油供给的经济可行性进行论证,结论显示整体趋势上,提高国内石油供给的总收益大于其总成本,并且其净收益呈现上升态势,是有利可图的,这种优势在国际油价高企的时候表现得更为突出,但是收益-成本弹性却呈现下降态势,即整体上成本的相对增长幅度要快于收益的增长幅度。

Oil import dependence has brought tremendous costs and economic risk for China. Increasing China＆#39;s oil supply is one way of reducing oil import dependence. Based on the reducing the oil import dependence effect, the article analyses the economic viability of increasing domestic oil supply from three points of view, that is, profits of wealth transfer, potential GDP profits and macroeconomic adjustment profits, and from another three consideration of costs, namely, direct production costs, environmental costs and user costs. The result shows that the profits of increasing our domestic oil supply are more than the costs from the overall trend, and the net profit is increasing, especially as the high oil price. But, the elasticity of profit-cost is falling, which shows the relatively growth rate of overall costs is faster than growth rate of profits.