对外开放门槛、物流业与制造业生产效率

Openness Threshold, Logistics and Manufacture Efficiency

鉴于从物流业发展来解释我国制造业生产效率提高这一角度存在的一些缺陷,文章在综述相关研究的基础上提出了二者之间存在非线性关系的观点。利用门槛回归模型,分别以贸易开放度和国际投资开放度作为对外开放门槛变量,证实了其在物流业提升制造业生产效率这一运行机制上存在着非线性的调节作用。研究结果表明:2003-2011年间,贸易开放度作为门槛,二者作用机制表现出了"倒U"型的相关关系;国际投资开放度作为门槛,二者作用机制表现出了显著的"逐步减弱"型相关关系,与理论和经验判断相一致。由于对外开放门槛效应的存在,系统、动态地看待我国对外开放和促进物流业发展的各项政策成为文章研究的重要启示。

In view of the defects in the explaining of growth of manufacturing^s profitability in China from the angles of development of logistics, this paper puts forward a proposition that development of logistics industry have non-linear relations with manufaeturing＇s profitability, and confirms the non-linear relations by panel threshold mode with the trade openness and international investment openness as the threshold variable. The conclusion shows that during the period of 2003-2011, with the trade openness as the threshold, the mechanism of two variables showed ＂Inverted U＂, with the international investment openness as the threshold, the two variables shows a significant ＂Weaken Gradually＂ type of relationship. The result is consistent with the theoretical and empirical judgment. Therefore, it provides the important enlightenment that because of the openness threshold effect, we should regard the openness and various policies of promoting logistics industry systematically and dynamically.