基于SD的装备保障力量需求预测模型

Demand Prediction Model for Equipment Support Force Based on SD

目的给出一种装备保障力量需求预测的科学方法。方法以系统动力学反馈控制理论为基础,以数学模型为反映媒介,以计算机仿真技术为手段,根据历史数据、实践经验和系统内在的机制关系建立了动态仿真模型。结果在不同参数条件下,比较了该模型中各变量变化范围的动态演变行为、综合模型结构和各变量之间的因果关系。通过软件调试输入变量"作战任务增加率"取值范围不同时,输出变量的变换情况。当输入变量取(0.65,0.73)时,战略级、战役级和战术级装备保障力量较为合理;当输入变量取(0.64,0.7)时,作战人员与装备保障人员的比例基本上能满足现代化的训练或战争需求。结论通过模型仿真,考虑装备发展趋势及平时装备保障任务需求,并参考外军装备保障力量建设经验,提出了我军装备保障力量建设的政策性建议。

Objective To propose a scientific method for demand prediction of equipment support force. Methods Based on system dynamic feedback control theory, using the mathematical model as the reflecting media, by means of computer simulation technology, a dynamic simulation model was built according to the historical data, the practical experience and the system inherent relationship and mechanism. Results Under the condition of different parameters, the dynamic evolution behavior of the change range of variables in the model was compared, and the model structure and the causal relationship among the variables were considered comprehensively. When inputting the value range of the variable ＂combat mission increase rate＂, the change of the output variable was debugged by software. When the input variables were （0.65, 0.65）, the strategic level, operational level and tactical level equipment support force was relatively reasonable. When the input variables were （0.64, 0.64）, the ratio of the operational personnel and equipment support personnel could basically meet the needs of modern training or war. Conclusion Through model simulation, considering the development trend of equipment, as well as the usual equipment support mission requirements, and referring to foreign military equipment support force construction experience, policy recommendations were proposed for the construction of equipment support forces in our army.