新疆能源消费碳足迹变化、影响因素及其演进分析

Changes,Influencing Factors and Eevolution of Carbon Footprint of Energy Consumption in Xinjiang

经济增长对能源消费的依赖性与生态环境恶化的矛盾日趋严重。本文采用IPCC方法测算了新疆能源消费碳足迹,利用岭回归对扩展的STIRPAT模型进行拟合,分析了各因素对碳足迹影响的演进规律,结果表明:1990—2011年新疆能源消费碳足迹整体上呈上升趋势,年均增长率为5.82%,其中能源消费碳足迹的构成中以煤炭为主,石油次之,天然气最小;新疆能源消费碳足迹产值在绝对数值和增长率方面都处于较低的水平,能源利用效率还有待提高;新疆不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线;各驱动因素对碳足迹增长的贡献会随着时间推移发生变化,人均GDP从2011年起已经成为对碳足迹影响最大的驱动力,而城镇化率对碳足迹的影响相对有限。

With the development of economy, the contradiction between its growth in the dependence of energy consumption and ecological environment is becoming increasingly serious. The study is aimed to analyze the influences of related factors on the evolution of carbon footprint. In this paper, we calculated Carbon Footprint of Energy Consumption in Xinjiang by IPCC, and developed the model STIRPAT by the tool of Ridge Regression. It is concluded that the overall ECCFX was growing with an average annual growth rate of 5. 82% from 1990 to 2011,which was mainly sourcing from coal, followed by oil and natu-ral gas, but it was fairy low at absolute value and growth rates in the output, which were needed to be im-proved. In this study, we also found that it was the population, GDP in average and urbanization rate that mainly led to the increment of energy consumption, and the extensive growth strategy did not prevent the ECCFX from declining. Also,the environment of Xinjiang was not applied to the Kuznets Curve, and the contribution of the driving factors were changing as time went by. The GDP in average had become the greatest impact on the ECCFX,while the influence from urbanization was relatively limited from 2011.