传染病自动预警系统运行状况及预警效果评价

Current situation and early warning evaluation on the China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System in Hefei

目的分析传染病自动预警系统在合肥市运行状况及其在传染病暴发探测中的作用,为完善传染病自动预警系统功能提供依据。方法以合肥市2008年5月1日-2013年4月30日期间传染病自动预警系统发出的预警信号数、法定传染病报告数、传染病暴发疫情及传染病类突发事件作为研究依据,以信号响应率、响应及时性评价运行状况,以预警及时性、灵敏度和突发事件阻断率评价预警效果。结果预警系统共发出预警信号8 958条,99.90%得到响应,92.57%在24h内有响应,响应及时性逐年提高。30起传染病暴发疫情中,预警系统探测到27起并发出预警,预警灵敏度90.00%。44.44%的暴发疫情及时预警。49条聚集性疫情预警信号中,39条未发展为突发事件,突发事件阻断率为79.59%。结论预警系统运行机制操作性强,预警信号响应良好,可初步实现传染病暴发的自动预警,但预警信号滞后,假阳性预警信号较多。

Objective To evaluate the current situation of China Infectious Diseases Automated - alert and Response System （CIDARS） and its application in predicting outbreak of the communicable diseases in Hefei, provide evidence for improvement of the system. Methods The amounts of warning signals, number of reported infectious diseases, outbreak and similar emergencies of infectious diseases were collected in CIDARS from May 1,2008 to April 30, 2013, which were analyzed by the response rate, timeliness of response, and evaluated by its timeliness, sensitivity and blocking rate. Results A total of 8958 warning signals were generated, 99.90% of whom were responded, and 92.57% were responded within 24 hours. Timeliness of response ascended year by year. 27 outbreaks issued warnings timely in 30 outbreaks of infectious disease and the warning sensitivity was 90.00%. 44.44% outbreaks issued warnings timely. In 49 clustering outbreaks, emergency blocking rate was 79.59% （ 39/49 ）. Conclusion CIDARS had realized automatic warning in outbreaks of infectious disease, However, there was some questions to solve, such as lag warning signals and more false positive signals.