吉林省城镇化发展与经济增长关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth in Jilin Province

城镇化是中国未来经济发展的重要引擎,是促进区域经济发展的重要手段,已经成为21世纪全球经济发展的主题。国内外的大量研究均证实了城镇化与经济增长之间存在着相互促进的正相关关系。吉林省正处在经济转型的关键时期,对其城镇化与经济增长的关系进行研究,有利于加快吉林省城镇化进程和促进经济发展。从1978-2013年吉林省非农人口比率和人均国内生产总值这一时间序列数据的协整分析来看,二者具有长期均衡稳定关系。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明吉林省城镇化发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因。利用VAR模型对吉林省2014-2020年城镇化与经济增长的水平做出预测,并建立脉冲响应函数图像考察二者的动态变动趋势,可使我们正确认识并积极稳妥地推进城镇化进程,进而促进经济增长。

Urbanization has become the theme of the global economic development in the 21 th century since it is the important engine of the future economic development in China,which is the significant means of promoting the regional economic development. A large number of papers studied by the domestic and foreign scholars have proved the positive mutually reinforcing relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Jilin province is in a critical period of economy transformation,it will be advantageous to accelerate the process of urbanization and promote the economic growth in Jilin province through researching on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two through co-integration analysis on non-agricultural population ratio and per capital gross domestic produce from1978 to 2013 in Jilin province.Granger causality tests shows that urbanization does Granger cause economic growth. Based on AVR model to make a forecast for the level of urbanization and economic growth from 2014 to 2020 in Jilin province,and establish multiple group of Impulse Response Function to examine the dynamic change trend of the two. Finally,put forward the suggestions on how to promote the process of urbanization and economic growth.