团体思考及其偏见对情报分析的影响

The Effect of Groupthink and Its Biases on Intelligence Analysis

文章阐述了团体思考概念和形成原因,研究了团体思考的理论模型,并运用团体思考的理论模型,解析了在典型的情报案例中团体思考偏见如何影响情报产品的准确性。针对团体思考的弊端,提出如何避免团体思考偏见的具体措施。

This paper expounds the concept and forming reasons of groupthink. Then, the paper researches on the theory model of groupthink and use it to analyze how the bias of groupthink influences the accuracy of intelligence product in typical intelligence cases. Aiming at the drawbacks of groupthink, the paper puts forward specific measures for how to avoid bias of groupthink.