河道洪水的简捷预测法

Simple Prediction Method for Flood in River Course

及时准确地预报该区域内河道某指定区段的洪水流量及发生时间,对合理实施该区域的防洪预案、落实抗洪抢险具体措施、组织调度人员及物资具有重要意义。由于目前在河道洪水预报中普遍采用的马斯京根流量演算法及加里宁-米尔加科夫洪水演进法,均存在参数率定的局限性及对应支流的河道分段处理问题。文章依据河道上下游洪水涨、落比率关系,建立了含有预测河段上游干、支流水文站实测合成流量变化率的预测模型,该模型不受其他水文参数的率定精度影响,可直接由当次洪水上游各站的观测资料计算下游站的预测洪水流量,并且模型的表达形式简单直观、便于实际应用。利用该模型完成了嫩江干流齐齐哈尔水文站1988、1989及2013年3场次的洪水流量预测,经与实测成果比较,预测精度等级达到甲级,具有较好的预测精度。

The immediate and exact prediction of the discharge and occurring time of flood at one given section of the fiver course in the region is significant for the execution of the flood control plan for the region, the fulfillment of the specific measures for flood fighting, and the organization and mobilization of manpower and materials. Currently, Mnskingnm routing method and Kalinin flood routing method both are applied normally in the river flood prediction. But both are with limitation of the parameter calibration and the sectional handling of the corresponding branches. In the paper, the prediction model with the resultant discharge variation rate measured at hydrological gauges on both main and branch rivers at the upstream fiver section to be predicted is built. This model is not impacted by the calibration accura- cy of other hydrological parameters. The measured data by the upstream hydrological gauges of the flood can be applied for the calculation of the predicted flood discharge by the downstream hydrological gauges. Furthermore, the model representation is simple and visual. It is convenient for practice. By application of this model, the flood discharges of three floods in 1988, 1989 and 2013 at Qiqihar hydrological gauge on the main fiver of the Neng River are predicted. Compared with the measured ones, the prediction precision level reaches Class A. It shows that a better prediction precision is available.