环境因子和混合贝塔分布的贝叶斯法制导弹药评估

Reliability Evaluation of Guided Ammunition Based on Testing Information Fusion

针对制导弹药可靠性试验评估成本高和靶场试验次数少的问题,采用基于环境因子和混合贝塔分布的贝叶斯法对制导弹药可靠性进行评估。利用环境因子法,结合成败型产品讨论了不同库存环境制导弹药可靠性试验数据的折合,解决了不同环境下数据融合的问题。以混合贝塔分布为先验分布,得到了评估制导弹药可靠性的Bayes方法,该法解决了性能检测试验数据与靶试数据融合问题,并对制导弹药可靠性进行了数值仿真计算,为制导弹药可靠性评估提供了一种新方法,具有一定的价值。

In view of the high cost for the reliability test of guided ammunition and the few of field tests,it is proposed a way of environment factor method with blended beta distribution to protect the problem. It is discussed the reliability test data of guided ammunition in different stored environment combined the pattern of success or failure product by environment factor method. A Bayes method of reliability evaluation for guided ammunition is put forward based on mixed beta distribution as the prior distribution,which solves the problem of data fusion between static detection and field tests. Further,the reliability of guided ammunition is calculated by numerical simulation. The new methods proposed in this paper have a certain value.