复合假设下导弹可靠性指标Bayes检验方法

Method for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing of Missile Reliability Indexes under Complex Hypothesis

在用Bayes方法对海防战术导弹可靠性指标进行假设检验时,原假设和对立假设均采用简单假设的形式,而此种方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大。从理论上阐述了简单假设Bayes检验方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大的原因,同时给出了用于取代简单假设的复合假设Bayes检验方法,并用实例证明了它比简单假设Bayes检验方法科学、合理。

For a long time,a null hypothesis and its resistant hypothesis have been adopted the form of a point hypothesis which may increase Bayes risk of users when Bayesian hypothesis testing for the reliability indexes of the Navy tactic missile has been conducted in the test of missiles. In this article,the reason of the growth of Bayes risk of users has been clarified theoretically. Meantime,a complex hypothesis has been given up,and its advantages over a point hypothesis have been vindicated by example.