我国地方政府公共支出规模对人口迁移的影响——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

The Impact of Local Government Public Expenditure Size on Migration in China:A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Approach

本文运用我国31个省域1997-2012年的相关数据,构建动态空间面板计量模型,分析政府公共支出对人口迁移的生产率效应和税收效应、直接效应和空间溢出效应。实证分析表明,地方政府的公共支出规模对净迁移人口的影响单调为正,生产率效应显著为正,税收效应不显著。人口迁移在经济发展水平相当地区之间呈现区域竞争性,地理位置相邻地区之间呈现区域协同性,且这种竞争和协同关系具有滞后性。公共支出规模等因素不仅对本地区的净迁移人口有显著影响(直接效应),而且对其相邻地区产生溢出效应(间接效应)。短期看,直接效应远大于间接效应;长期看,两者的差距缩小,间接效应逐步显现。

Based on data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2012, this paper establishes a dynamic spatial panel data model. The empirical results show that there is a monotonous positive relationship between public expenditure size and migration. Productive effect is significantly positive and tax effect is not significant. Provinces of similar capita GDP are competitive in population migration, but neighboring provinces are co-ordinate in migration, and these effects are hysteretic. Public expenditure size of a province has not only a significant impact on its own net migration （direct effect）, but also a spillover effect on its neighbor provinces （indirect effect）. In the short run, direct effect overweighs direct effect. In the long run, the gap between two effects gets narrowed, and indirect effect gradually becomes prominent.