能源消费、贸易开放与经济增长

Energy Consumption,Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth

本文采用中国1995-2012年省际面板数据,运用加工贸易额对贸易开放度进行修正,引入一步SYS-GMM动态面板模型,考察了中国能源消费、贸易开放与经济增长之间的相关关系和地区差异性。研究发现:能源消费和贸易开放对中国的经济增长存在显著的促进作用;在扣除了加工贸易量进行修正后,贸易开放对中国经济增长的促进作用进一步提升;贸易开放与能源消费交叉项对中国经济增长具有负向作用,即贸易开放通过提高能源利用效率从而间接地制约了能源消费对中国经济增长的贡献率;能源消费和贸易开放对经济增长的影响在中国东中西部之间存在显著的地区差异性,具体而言,能源消费对东中西部地区的经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但是贸易开放对东部地区的经济增长具有显著的促进作用,而在中西部地区的促进作用却不显著。最后,本文根据以上研究结论提出了若干对策建议。

This paper applies a one-step system GMM method with China＇s 1995 — 2012 provincial panel data to analyze the relationships among China＇s energy consumption, trade liberalization and economic growth. The results indicate that energy consumption and trade liberalization have positive effects on economic growth, and the effect of energy consumption is significantly greater than that of trade liberalization. After deducting the outsourcing trade, the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth has been enhanced. The cross term of trade liberalization and energy consumption has negative effects on economic growth. The relationships among China＇s energy consumption, trade liberalization and economic growth are different among China＇s eastern, central and western areas. Specifically, the energy consumption plays a significant role in promoting each area＇s economic growth, but the effect of trade liberalization on economic growth is not significant in China＇s central and western areas. Finally, some relevant policies and suggestions are provided according to the results.