中国CPI编制方法面临的问题及进一步改革的若干设想

The Problems of China's CPI Compilation Methods and Suggestions on Further Reformation

CPI是宏观经济领域的核心指标之一,也是政府、企业和居民关注的重点对象,其实践意义举足轻重,编制方法的完善与优化事关重大。作为发展中国家,中国CPI的编制工作仍处于向国际规范转变的过渡期,相应编制方法还存在一些不完善之处,常常引发社会公众的困惑、误解和研究者们的分歧、质疑。本文在参考相关国际标准及有关国家实践经验的基础上,结合现实经济情况,针对中国CPI的低层汇总公式偏误、权重更新频率、商品质量变化及新产品的偏误、季节性产品处理、自有住房服务处理及特型价格指数的系统性编制等问题进行了较为详细的分析,并就其可能的改革方向与措施做了较为深入的探讨。

CPI is one of the core indicators in macroeconomic areas, which has also got attention from the governments, businesses and residents for a long time. CPI plays a decisive role in practical applicationsand it is meaningful to improve and optimize the compilation method. However, as a developing country, China＇s CPI compilation is still in transition period to international norms. So, there are still some imperfections Of the compilation methods, which often lead to public confusions, misunderstandings, disagreements and incredulity from researchers. According to the relevant international standards of “Consumer Price Index Manual： Theory and Practice” and related countries＇ practical experience, considering China＇s real economic situation, this paper summarizes and analyzes several major issues, namely substitution bias issue of the element CPI formula, updating frequency issue of CPI representation basket and weights, quality change bias problem of goods and new products, treatment problem of seasonal products, treatment problem of owner-occupied housing services, systematic preparation issues of special price indexes. Accordingly, this paper conducts a deep analysis on the possible direction of improvement.