利用3S技术定量估测张家港市2005—2008年小麦生产力

Quantitative Estimation on Wheat Productivity in Zhangjiagang City from 2005 to 2008 Using 3S Technology

为了科学准确地、动态地大面积估测江苏省张家港市小麦的生产力,利用TM和IRS-P6遥感影像,采用NDVI值比较区分法,应用3S技术对张家港市2005—2008年小麦的生产力变化进行了动态估测。结果表明,遥感估测张家港市2005—2008年小麦平均种植面积的精度结果为97%以上;小麦平均产量精度结果为93.55%;利用3S技术进行张家港市小麦总产遥感估测值与地面统计值差异低于8%;遥感估测张家港市小麦总产量呈逐年上升的趋势,而耕作面积相对稳定。总之,基于近4年遥感数据所获取的张家港市小麦总产量的变化情况建立模型,可以估测出张家港市城市化发展对当地小麦供需平衡的影响不大。

In order to estimate the wheat agricultural productivity over a broad areas scientifically, accurately and dynamically in Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu Province, the TM and IRS-P6 remote sensing images were chosen as analytical materials and based on NDVI value comparison method.The wheat productivity changes in Zhangjiagang City from 2005 to 2008 were dynamically estimated by 3S technology. The results showed that the remote sensing estimation accuracy of the average acreage of wheat in Zhangjiagang City from 2005 to 2008 was more than 97%; The remote sensing estimation accuracy of the average yield of wheat was about 93.55%;The discrepancy of total wheat production value between remote sensing estimation and ground statistics was less than 8%; The total yield of wheat in Zhangjiagang City was increasing year by year, while the cultivated area was relatively stable. Above all, The model,which based on wheat production changes in Zhangjiagang City from remote sensing data acquired during 2005—2008, shown that Zhangjiagang City urbanization development had little effect on the balance between supply and demand of wheat.