摘要
为分析风电场并网对发电系统可靠性的影响,建立了基于状态转移抽样的风电机组多状态模型,提出了等风速与等风频的状态区间划分原则,并根据实测数据求得风电机组各状态的平均持续时间与状态转移率。采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟技术评估含风电场发电系统的可靠性。基于IEEE-RBTS的仿真结果表明:与威布尔直接抽样相比,风电机组多状态模型更精确;风电机组等风频11状态可靠性模型能够在不增加可靠性分析复杂性的前提下有效提高分析精度。
In order to analysis the reliability of generation system with wind farms,a multi-state model of the wind turbine generator was established based on state transition sampling,and the interval division principles of equal wind speed and equal wind frequency were proposed.Duration and transition rate of each state was obtained based on historical data.Then sequential Monte Carlo simulation technology was utilized to assess the reliability of generation system with wind farms.Simulation results on IEEE-RBTS demonstrated that compared to weibull sampling,the multi-state model is more accurate; wind turbine generator 11-state model with equal wind frequency division principle could effectively improve the reliability analysis accuracy without increasing analysis complexity.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第10期41-45,共5页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
基金
江苏省"333工程"培养基金项目(BRA2011168)
中央高校基本科研业务费自由探索项目(2012B05914)
关键词
风电场
可靠性
状态转移抽样
多状态模型
序贯蒙特卡洛模拟
wind farm
reliability
state transition sampling
multi-state model
sequential Monte Carlo simulation
