农户土地种植面积与土地生产率的关系——基于中西部七县(市)农户的调查数据

A Study of the Relationship Between Household Land Acreage and Land Productivity Based on the Survey Data of Central and Western Seven Counties's(Cities's) Farmers

土地种植面积与土地生产率之间究竟存在何种关系?这一问题的答案,不仅关乎我国的粮食安全,也关乎我国农村土地政策、劳动力转移和城镇化等重大问题。农业生产深受气候条件、距离市场的远近、种植方式、土地质量、基础设施等因素的影响,但现有的文献没有很好地控制这些因素;另有学者以欧美等大农杨的数据或者官方提供的数据为基础,来分析我国农业是否采取规模经营政策,这并不切实际。本文根据马克思主义的生产力构成要素理论和科布-道格拉斯的生产函数,建立土地种植面积与土地生产率之间关系的计量模型,然后基于我国中西部七县(市)相邻的乡镇农户调查数据,分别对望江县水稻、南县水稻和棉花、濮阳市小麦种植生产的相关数据进行回归分析,结果显示:在控制气候条件、距离市场的远近、种植方式、土地质量、基础设施等因素的前提下,土地种植面积与土地生产率之间呈现正向的关系,不同土地经营规模条件下土地种植面积对土地生产率的影响也为正值;考虑农机设备的资本投入要素后,土地种植面积与土地生产率之间依然呈现正向关系;边际效应的分析表明,农户土地经营规模的增加,不仅不会降低土地生产率,在多数情况下反而会增加土地生产率。这表明在当前家庭联产承包责任制下,鼓励和完善土地流转政策,减少零碎化经营,推动适当的规模经营,不但不会降低,反而会提高我国土地生产率和农业总产量。这一研究结论对制定土地流转的相关政策、完善农村劳动力等要素市场、鼓励农业规模经营的发展战略和支持城镇化建设等具有很强的现实意义。

What kind of relationship between the land planting area and land productivity？ The answer to this question, not only relates to the food security of our country, but also relates to the major problems of China＇ s rural land policy,labor transfer and urbanization. Agricultural production can be deeply impacted by multiple factors, such as climatic conditions, proximity to market, planting mode, the quality of land,infrastructure, and etc. However, previous research in the literature has not examined those factors from a well-balanced perspective. Some other scholars analyzed whether China should adopt the agriculture policy of scale management based on the agricultural data from Europe and the United States or directly from the Chinese Government＇ s documented data, which is usually considered unrealistic. This research adapted Karl Marx＇ s theory of the Constituent Elements of the Productive Forces and the Cobb- Douglas＇ Production Function and established the Econometric Model of the Relationship between Land Planting area and Land Productivity . The survey data from the adjacent rural farmers of China＇ s Central-Western seven counties （cities） are used for regression analysis, particularly those relevant data of the rice production of Wangjiang County, the rice and wheat production of Nan County, and the cotton production of Puyang-City. The results from this research showed that there is a positive relationship between land planting area and land productivity in the precondition of controlling climatic conditions, proximity to market, planting mode, the quality of land, infrastructure and other factors. The relationship between land planting area and land productivity is also positive in different land management scales. When the variable of capital input of agricultural equipment is controlled, the relationship between land planting area and land productivity is positive as well. Analysis of the marginal effect shows that increasing the farmers＇ scale of land management, not only will not reduce land productivity, but will increase the productivity of land in most cases. To cap, this research shows that under the current agricultural system of the Contracted Responsibilities for Households, encouraging and improving land circulation policy, reducing land fragmentation management, and promoting scale management not only will not reduce, but will improve the land productivity and the total agricultural output. The conclusion of this research has a strong practical significance for the formulating of land circulation policies, improving the factor market such as rural labor, encouraging the development strategy of agricultural scale management, and supporting the urbanization policy in China.