基于供需管理的太湖流域水资源反退化能力研究

Research on Water Antidegradation Capacity in Taihu Lake Basin Based on Water Supply and Demand Management

近年来,我国流域水资源系统退化问题日趋严重。水质恶化、水生态环境退化以及突发性水危机事件常态化等,使得流域水资源反退化能力建设备受重视。环太湖区域作为率先进入现代化建设的示范区,太湖水资源反退化能力建设是区域现代化建设的重要组成部分。为提升太湖流域水资源反退化能力,从水资源供需管理视角出发,构建了供需两侧流域水资源反退化能力评价指标体系,应用全排列综合图示法分析了2001-2012年太湖流域供需两侧水资源反退化能力综合发展指数、发展演变速度及其变化原因,以二维空间矩阵形式对流域水资源反退化能力进行了综合评价。结果表明:近10年来,太湖流域供需两侧水资源反退化能力综合发展指数总体呈上升趋势,自2006年起,需求侧一直高于供给侧,供需两侧正向协调作用没有很好地显现;流域反退化能力发展演变速度总体波动较大,由于社会经济发展、用水效率以及污染治理等因素变化,个别年份需求侧水资源反退化能力出现下降现象;在供水管理方面,自然生态环境的退化是导致供给侧水资源反退化能力下降的主要原因。基于上述结论,分别从供水管理和需水管理角度提出了增强太湖流水资源反退化能力的对策和建议。

In recent years, the degradation problems of China＇s water resources system have become more serious. Given the current concerns with water resources system degradation, such as water quality deterioration, water ecology system degradation, and water pollution emergency normalization water resources antidegradation capacity of river basin has been paid more attention. Taihu Lake basin is one of the modernization construction demonstration areas, and the water resources antidegradation capacity is a basis of the district modernization constructions. In order to enhance the water resources antidegradation capacity of Taihu Lake Basin, we set up a water resources antidegradation capacity evaluation model from the perspective of water demand and supply management, and use the full permutation polygon synthesis illustration method （FPPSI） to analyze the comprehensive development index, evolution speed and its changing reasons of water resources antidegradation capacity from 2001 to 2012. Two dimensional matrix is used to estimate the water resources antidegradation capacity comprehensively. The results show that comprehensive development index of the water resources anti-degradation capacity is overall on the increase from the water demand and supply aspect in Taihu Lake Basin. Since 2006, the water resources antidegradation capacity in the water demand side has been higher than it is in the supply side, which indicates the positive coordination efficiency between the two sides is not significant. The evolution speed of the basin antidegradation capacity development varies with great fluctuation. The antidegradation capacity of water demand side descends in some years for the factors such as the socio-economic development, water-usage efficiency and pollution treatment. The antidegradation capacity of water supply side descends because of ecology system degradation. Based on the conclusions mentioned above, the strategies and suggestions for enhancing water resources antidegradation capacity of Taihu Lake Basin are put forward from the perspective of the water demand and supply management.