交通运输设备制造业碳排放变动研究

Empirical Analyses on Carbon Dioxide Emissions Variation of Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Industry

本文基于投入产出理论和LMDI分解法,对1997—2010年间交通运输设备制造业及其5个子行业能源消耗进行测算,并对交通运输设备制造业碳排放变动及其影响因素进行研究,建立起直接和间接碳排放因素分解模型,将直接碳排放变动分解为能耗效率、行业规模等3种效应,将间接碳排放变动分解为完全消耗系数、行业规模等4种效应。结论表明,行业规模是导致直接、间接碳排放增加的主要因素,完全消耗系数效应对碳排放的影响不能忽视,累积贡献率达到52.42%。而能源结构调整的抑制效应不明显,累积贡献率只达到间接碳排放的-26.61%,只依靠能耗效率提高不能抑制碳排放的快速增加。所以交通运输设备制造业应建立新的节能机制,通过进口、产业升级等多个手段减少中间环节能耗,减少碳排放。

Based on the input-output method and LMDI method,this paper measures efficiency of energy consumptions of transportation equipment manufacturing industry and its＇ five sub-sectors and analyzes the carbon dioxide emissions change and influencing factors of transportation equipment manufacturing industry from 1997 to 2007 at the same time. The models of factor decompositions on direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of transportation equipment manufacturing industry are built. The variation of direct carbon dioxide emissions is decomposed into three parts including efficiency of energy consumptions,industrial scale and so on. And the variation of indirect carbon dioxide emissions variation is decomposed into four parts including complete consuming coefficient,industrial scale and so on. The results indicate that industrial scale is the main cause of the direct and indirect carbon emissions increasing,and the effects of complete consuming coefficient to carbon dioxide emissions that the cumulative contribution rate is up to 52. 42% can＇t be ignored.Relatively speaking,the adjustments of energy structure don ＇t have obviously effects to restrict the carbon dioxide emissions,so the cumulative contribution rate is up to- 26. 61% of whole indirect carbon dioxide emissions. Only depending on raising efficiency of energy consumption can＇t restrict the rapid increase of carbon dioxide. So the new energy conservation mechanism should be established and the redundant procedures should be reduced through import and upgrading industries.