东盟加三区域货币合作经济基础研究

The Economic Foundation of the Monetary Cooperation about ASEAN+3

以最优货币区理论最新的成本-收益模型作为理论研究的基础框架,区别于侧重经济冲击相关性分析的相关研究,从名义汇率变动、通货膨胀率及实际经济周期相关性三个角度,对整个东亚地区是否适合组建货币区并推出共同货币的经济可行性进行了实证检验。结果显示,东亚国家组建货币区的成本与收益是正相关的,暂不适合组建一个全面而成熟的货币区,应通过一系列的经贸、金融及货币合作协议渐进地达成这一目标。

Different from relevant studies on the correlation analysis focusing on economic impact, we use the latest cost - benefit model of optimal currency area theory as the basic theoretical framework to conduct an empirical examination on the economic feasibility of whether it is suitable to form a currency area in the entire Eastern Asian Area and push out common currency from three aspects, that is, nominal exchange rate change, inflation rate and real business cycle correlation. The results show that there is a positive correlation between economic benefits and costs for construction of a currency u- nion of the East - Asian countries and it is unsuitable to form a global and mature currency area at present. It is needed to achieve this goal gradually through a series of economic, trading, financial and monetary cooperation agreements.