2014-2015年中国宏观经济再展望

China's Economic Outlook in 2014-2015: Updates

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2014年9月12日在德国海德堡举行了中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)第十五次预测发布。报告显示,2014年下半年中国经济增长减速的态势还将继续,预计全年GDP增速为7.49%。物价水平保持温和上涨态势,CPI预计将上涨2.51%。受制造业产能过剩、房地产业库存增加以及地方政府还债压力的影响,2015年中国经济增长减速的趋势还将继续,GDP增速将会继续小幅下滑。课题组模拟了下调预期经济增长率的宏观经济效应。根据预测及政策模拟结果,课题组建议:将明后两年的经济增长目标调整至7.2%左右有利于在一定程度上改善主要宏观经济指标。政府适当减轻频繁的稳增长微刺激政策调控操作,通过深化改革、调整结构,改变发展方式,提高潜在的经济增长率,有利于在下一轮的经济增长上行阶段,争取更好的经济增长实绩。

On September 12, 2014, the project team of ＂China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂ （CQMM） held its fifteenth CQMM forecast in Heidelberg, Germany. The forecast shows that China＇s economic growth will continue to slow clown in the second half of 2014, at the expected annual GDP growth rate of 7.49%. Prices will keep a moderate level of rising, and CPI is expected to rise by 2.51%. Affected by manufacturing overeapaeity, increase in real estate inventories and pressure on local government debts, China＇s economic growth will continue to slow clown in 2015 with a slight decline of GDP growth. The Project team simulated the macroeconomic effects of the lowered economic growth expectations, and made evaluations and prospects of our recent macroeconomic policies. It is suggested that the goal of economic growth for the next two years should be set at about 7.2%, which will to some extent enhance major macroeconomic indexes. It is argued that the government should take measures to decrease its mild-stimulation policy aimed at steady growth, and to enhance the po- tential growth by deepening the reform, adjusting the structure, and transforming the development approach. These actions will prove conducive to better economic performance in the next phase of upward economic growth.