空间不平衡、人口流动与外商直接投资的区域选择——中国1995～2010年省际空间面板数据分析

Spatial Disequilibrium,Population Mobility and Regional Choice of FDI:A Research based on Spatial Panel Data in China,1995-2010

文章提出了“人口流动是否对FDI区域选择有影响及影响的空间差异”的研究议题；考察了中国1995～2010年31个省、市、自治区人口流动和FDI的时空演变轨迹和耦合关系。主要结论有：（1）全局Moran’sI显示，中国FDI和流动人口存在显著的空间自相关性，且随着时间的推移越来越显著；（2）FDI和流动人口重心位于我国华中核心地区；两者自1995～2005年都有自西向东的演变趋势，但2005～2010年开始向西转；FDI、省内和省外流动人口三者重心演变轨迹有一定的空间差异；（3）空间面板模型分析了人口流动、政府服务和经济发展对FDI空间选择的影响，证实了人口流动、尤其是跨省流动对中国FDI的区域差异和空间选择具有重大影响。文章采用的研究方法模型主要包括：空间重心演变模型、空间自相关模型、空间面板数据模型。

In addressing the research question that whether population mobility influences regional choice of foreign direct investment （FDI） and its spatial difference, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal relationship between population mobility and FDI in 3] provinces of China and its evolution traj- edory from 1995 to 2010. There are several research findings： First, Global Moran＇ s I shows that FDI and population mobility have significant spatial autocorrelation and the significance increases with time. Second, the gravity centers of FDI and population mobility locate in the central area of China, i. e., near Wuhan, Nanchang, and Hefei, which move from west to east from 1995 to 2005, while the direction re- verses between 200.5 to 20].0. Such a trend is related to the regional development strategies. However, there are spatial variations among the gravily centers of FDI, of intra-provincial mobile population and of inter-provincial mobile population. Third, analyzing the influence of population mobility, government serv- ice and economic development on FDI shows that population mobility, especially the long-distance trans- provincial population movement significantly affects the spatial distribution and regional choice on FDI.